Numbers of British P.1907 bayonets surviving

[Phil B]

2 hours ago, t.ryan said:

Number 5154 looks like another new smiling tiger for JMBs list.

That is a couple of new ones you have come across in a few days, if they both check out ok with JMB.

Slowly but surly the list is getting closer to the 200 mark.

Cheers

That’s what happens when you have an addict on the forum *** . Hope to reach 10 rifles and Ten bayonets this year in my collection. Added about 4 of each last year. 
Phil

[trajan]

On 14/01/2023 at 06:22, t.ryan said:

Just checked it out, like most military stuff coming on the market now, it is a little bit expensive but I don't think the SSAA charges as much as the bay in fees.

Looks a reasonable outfit and the bayonet looks nice. Do the rifle and bayonet numbers match; that would sweeten the deal.

I spun the photo around so as to read it clearly and you can still see some of its earlier markings.

Bayonet looks like smiling tiger number 6339 and I believe it will be a new one for JMBs list.

Cheers,

TR.

A WILKINSON / PALL MALL, with lower line scrubbed, so that will give you a date range for its manufacture.

Trajan

[JMB1943]

TR & Phil,

You two have quite the eagle eyes!

#6339 & #5154 Are indeed both new ones, so getting closer to the 200-milestone.

Keep up the good work.

Regards,

JMB

[t.ryan]

JMB,

This may be another new smiling tiger for the list, number 6581 which showed up on the "bay" over your way. The price on this one is getting up there also.

Cheers,

TR.

 

[JMB1943]

TR,

Yes indeed, another new one for the tiger sanctuary!

Regards,

JMB

 

[Chasemuseum]

At 2% confirmed survival, these are now amongst the highest credible survival rate of pre-1945 bayonets.

[JMB1943]

I am trying to understand how bayonets become scarce, e.g. how did 10,000 Smiling Tigers become only 200?

Please humour me with the following scenario, which describes a very general situation that is not necessarily applicable to the Smiling Tigers:

In the 20th century, a nation with a standing army decides that its rifles have been surpassed in performance by technology/cartridge developments etc; by definition its rifles have been made obsolete.

Each rifle is equipped with a bayonet that was developed specifically for that rifle, so the bayonet is now also obsolete.

Some percentage of rifles/bayonets is possibly kept as war reserves, while some percentage is sold to other countries; some percentage is bought by a Francis Bannerman-type for sale to collectors.

Do the rest of the bayonets, usually of high-quality steel, just go to scrap-metal companies and disappear into blast furnaces?

Regards,

JMB

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 21 January , 2023 by JMB1943
typo

[Dave66]

1 hour ago, JMB1943 said:

I am trying to understand how bayonets become scarce, e.g. how did 10,000 Smiling Tigers become only 200?

Please humour me with the following scenario, which describes a very general situation that is not necessarily applicable to the Smiling Tigers:

In the 20th century, a nation with a standing army decides that its rifles have been surpassed in performance by technology/cartridge developments etc; by definition its rifles have been made obsolete.

Each rifle is equipped with a bayonet that was developed specifically for that rifle, so the bayonet is now also obsolete.

Some percentage of rifles/bayonets is possibly kept as war reserves, while some percentage is sold to other countries; some percentage is bought by a Francis Bannerman-type for sale to collectors.

Do the rest of the bayonets, usually of high-quality steel, just go to scrap-metal companies and disappear into blast furnaces?

Regards,

JMB

 

 

 

 

 

I would also assume there is a large number still languishing in old tool boxes, sheds etc…the ones we show in threads like this are in the hands of collectors who know exactly what they are, to others, they are just useful tools, irrespective of their original use or history so until they appear on the open market there can never be a true estimation of surviving numbers…but a large number I would assume have gone for scrap

One local chap here “mickey the mole man” was in the local paper after a burglary, one of the items stolen was his fathers P1907 which he still used for killing moles a century after .

Dave.

 

Edited 21 January , 2023 by Dave66

[Phil B]

Found a couple of photos on line the other day. Ill leave the translation to you guys 

[JMB1943]

Hello Phil,

Many thanks for these two, one old at 6527.

Mr Ryan, what sayest thou—one new at 6557? I don’t like that last digit too much!

Regards,

JMB
 

Edited 1 February , 2023 by JMB1943
typo

[t.ryan]

JMB,

From the best look I can get at the photo, I would call 6557. It does appear to have the tail going up on what otherwise could be a 3. It is a hard one, I will keep an eye out for a better photo. Good to see a new number show up.

Cheers,

TR

[Will M]

Bayonet survival rates are high unless modified for fitment to newer firearms as Germans tended to do with foreign bayonets. I've owned 2 tigers and usually see one or two at militaria shows. As for 1907's millions would still exist. A fellow collector hoards these and has about 100, multiply this my many collectors and.....

The internet has made previously thought of as rare now become quite common in many cases. Always plenty of bayonets though you may have to wait 50 years for some collectors to sell or give up the ghost.

[Chasemuseum]

I have considered this thread very interesting and enjoyed following it. 

I will rather strongly disagree with Will M. Since the development of "industrial warfare" in the late c19, many items of military equipment have been manufactured by the 100,000s and millions of a single item, be it a bayonet, rifle, waterbottle, mess tin or other. For most items the survival rate is very low. Although a million widgets may have been manufactured a hundred years ago, there is the destruction of items in military training and then when wars have occurred, combat losses. For most widgets these two consumptions have probably been relatively minor certainly less than 20% and probably less than 10%. The residue ends up in "war reserves" when the more modern and better designed widget Mk II replaces it with both regular and reserve forces. 

From war reserves, disposal has multiple paths:

            - sale as scrap to the commercial market, where most ends up being burned as scrap metal, a proportion on the "collector market" and a proportion passed through unscrupulous suppliers to minor conflicts in the 3rd world. 

            - government to government sponsored supply mostly from advances to 3rd world countries as economic defence aid. A great deal of this material is contracted on end user agreements which require that the material must be destroyed when no longer required.

             - immediate destruction.

Specifically with bayonets of many hundreds of millions manufactured, there is little doubt that most have ultimately been destroyed when they have ultimately left war reserves of the last user nation.

More specifically the P1907 bayonet for the SMLE No 1 Mk III series of rifles and associated weapons, of 10s of millions manufactured very few are today still in war reserves of any nation. There are probably still some in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh but the count is probably under 1,000,000 and most probably well under 100,000. A big part of the problem is that no one shares a lot of reliable data about what they hold in war reserve and what they have destroyed. Australia released drone photos of bulldozers driving over F111 fighter jets at a garbage dump before they were buried, but high capability jet fighter bombers are a little different to a box of old bayonets.

Within the collector community globally there are tens if not hundreds of thousands of P07 bayonets. No one has any idea of the survival rate. In the 1990s the Australian government was burning them literally by the thousand as the decision had been made that they would be destroyed rather than released to the market, a dramatic change from the late 80s when many many thousands of weapons were released into the international collectors market (most of which went to the UK and were converted to dewats).

So its extremely hard to get a good feel for survival rates of anything. The Siam tigers however present a rather unique insight. We know that there were only 10,000 made. They were repaired and remained in service even when in pretty horrible condition. Thailand only had a minor combat involvement in WW2. There was a small war with the French Cambodian Government in the 30s. There were also ongoing conflicts with various insurgent groups from WW2 to today. With all of this, the combat losses of P07 tigers is likely to have been very low. So it is highly likely that a very high percentage (probably +98%) of the original 10,000 were sold into the international commercial market in a small number of batches after 1960. 

Given how obsolete the rifles were at the time and generally very poor condition, its reasonable to expect that most of the bayonets were ultimately sold into the civilian commercial markets of western nations from the 1960s to 1980s. 

So this study which has documented through serial numbers that at least 2% of bayonets survive today in private collections is interesting. Ultimately how many survive today cannot be determined, 4%?, 6%? 10%?  How the database grows over the next 2 years should give some indication of this.

Projecting this study onto the P07 in general, where other variables for destruction come into play, the survival rate is likely to be much lower, likely by one or two orders of magnitude.

So the tigers present a very interesting statistical study due to the controls.

Cheers

Ross

 

   

 

[trajan]

Nice one Ross! In theory - and in practice! - we could do a comparative study with P.07 bayonets marked for the RAF, which JMB and I have studied. The potential number so marked for use by that force is 70,000. We have recorded - thanks to many GWF members - 83 or so... So a quite different rate here - 0.11857% I believe. Much clearly depends on how the various and different authorities involved decide to dispose of these things.

Julian  

[JMB1943]

Ross,

Thank you for that detailed account of how obsolescent weaponry passes from war reserves to destruction.

It will take at least another 2-3 years of data collection before I have enough time periods to plot which will let us know whether the end is in sight. My fear, of course, is that the reporting will continue indefinitely at a level above zero for any given time period. Under the “Husband buys, Wife sighs, Husband dies, Wife cries, Wife sells” scenario that is likely to continue.

Your compatriots seem to have an inexhaustible supply of tigers tucked away!

As imperfect as the methodology may be, it was the only way that I could see to enable the the survival rate of the Patt. 1907 bayonet to be estimated.

Regards,

JMB

 

[Will M]

10 hours ago, Chasemuseum said:

I have considered this thread very interesting and enjoyed following it. 

I will rather strongly disagree with Will M. Since the development of "industrial warfare" in the late c19, many items of military equipment have been manufactured by the 100,000s and millions of a single item, be it a bayonet, rifle, waterbottle, mess tin or other. For most items the survival rate is very low. Although a million widgets may have been manufactured a hundred years ago, there is the destruction of items in military training and then when wars have occurred, combat losses. For most widgets these two consumptions have probably been relatively minor certainly less than 20% and probably less than 10%. The residue ends up in "war reserves" when the more modern and better designed widget Mk II replaces it with both regular and reserve forces. 

From war reserves, disposal has multiple paths:

            - sale as scrap to the commercial market, where most ends up being burned as scrap metal, a proportion on the "collector market" and a proportion passed through unscrupulous suppliers to minor conflicts in the 3rd world. 

            - government to government sponsored supply mostly from advances to 3rd world countries as economic defence aid. A great deal of this material is contracted on end user agreements which require that the material must be destroyed when no longer required.

             - immediate destruction.

Specifically with bayonets of many hundreds of millions manufactured, there is little doubt that most have ultimately been destroyed when they have ultimately left war reserves of the last user nation.

More specifically the P1907 bayonet for the SMLE No 1 Mk III series of rifles and associated weapons, of 10s of millions manufactured very few are today still in war reserves of any nation. There are probably still some in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh but the count is probably under 1,000,000 and most probably well under 100,000. A big part of the problem is that no one shares a lot of reliable data about what they hold in war reserve and what they have destroyed. Australia released drone photos of bulldozers driving over F111 fighter jets at a garbage dump before they were buried, but high capability jet fighter bombers are a little different to a box of old bayonets.

Within the collector community globally there are tens if not hundreds of thousands of P07 bayonets. No one has any idea of the survival rate. In the 1990s the Australian government was burning them literally by the thousand as the decision had been made that they would be destroyed rather than released to the market, a dramatic change from the late 80s when many many thousands of weapons were released into the international collectors market (most of which went to the UK and were converted to dewats).

So its extremely hard to get a good feel for survival rates of anything. The Siam tigers however present a rather unique insight. We know that there were only 10,000 made. They were repaired and remained in service even when in pretty horrible condition. Thailand only had a minor combat involvement in WW2. There was a small war with the French Cambodian Government in the 30s. There were also ongoing conflicts with various insurgent groups from WW2 to today. With all of this, the combat losses of P07 tigers is likely to have been very low. So it is highly likely that a very high percentage (probably +98%) of the original 10,000 were sold into the international commercial market in a small number of batches after 1960. 

Given how obsolete the rifles were at the time and generally very poor condition, its reasonable to expect that most of the bayonets were ultimately sold into the civilian commercial markets of western nations from the 1960s to 1980s. 

So this study which has documented through serial numbers that at least 2% of bayonets survive today in private collections is interesting. Ultimately how many survive today cannot be determined, 4%?, 6%? 10%?  How the database grows over the next 2 years should give some indication of this.

Projecting this study onto the P07 in general, where other variables for destruction come into play, the survival rate is likely to be much lower, likely by one or two orders of magnitude.

So the tigers present a very interesting statistical study due to the controls.

Cheers

Ross

 

   

 

You have not taken into account desirability and value of specific items. Items destroyed many are too large or useless whereas bayonets hold interest being an edged weapon of reasonable size. I don't believe you can group destruction of bayonets with aircraft, that's somewhat absurd. Even thousands of Ross bayonets were converted to hunting knives after the war rather than being destroyed. People don't destroy coins either seen by the vast amounts since coinage began. I'm not saying that some bayonets were not recycled but they tended to have more value as what they are so survival rates would be good. Until you have proof and not conjecture even a better argument can't come to find the truth. I've seen 10's of 1000's of spike bayonets in govt storage in the 90's at 202WD.

[Chasemuseum]

47 minutes ago, Will M said:

I don't believe you can group destruction of bayonets with aircraft, that's somewhat absurd.

The comment was made to illustrate a couple of issues. Firstly, that the destruction of material held in war reserves is usually a very invisible process. The general community is usually entirely unaware that this has happened and the process is not recorded historically. Secondly, how the destruction can be a contractual requirement from the original supply. The USA government allowed Australia to purchase the F111 aircraft new from the manufacturers then latter also sold a small quantity of former USAF aircraft to Australia as a second tranche of supply to the RAAF. When the aircraft were disposed of (some had been operational until the end while others had been held in war reserve and were used to supply parts to the operational fleet) the USA required that the aircraft must be destroyed. A small number have been retained for display in museums but this has been managed through a loophole in the agreement as the aircraft in museums have been retained as RAAF property and are not actually assets of the museums. In the same way the Australian Army is currently using as its combat rifle a licensed model of the Steyr AUG which was manufactured here at the Lithgow factory. The initial bayonets for these rifles were a USA M4 style bayonet made by the USA company Buck, and with unique markings on the bayonet and the scabbard to designate Australian military ownership. As weapons manufactured in the USA and exported under US Government license, their ultimate disposal will be subject to USA Government approval which is likely to mandate destruction. Similarly, if current Australian Government policy is unchanged, this will also mandate destruction. 

 

2 hours ago, JMB1943 said:

As imperfect as the methodology may be, it was the only way that I could see to enable the the survival rate of the Patt. 1907 bayonet to be estimated.

Far from being imperfect. This exercise as avoided a wide variety of extremely difficult to assess variables in the process. The P07 is a popular collectable bayonet so tigers are well imbedded in the collecting community and they are distinctly different making observation and recording much easier. So this provides an excellent tool to evaluate the survival of a manageable inventory of bayonets. I hope you have recorded in the database, when individual bayonets have been reported. If the rate of reporting goes into significant decline, this will permit a statistical estimate of the ultimate number of these bayonets ever likely to be reported. 

 

The study of the RAF bayonets is likely to be problematic. Too many collectors and dealers at this time place little importance on regimental and service markings, so the rate of reporting is likely to be very slow compared to the Tigers. Again the statistical analysis based on the date of reporting will be critical data as this will assist in the estimate of the total numbers surviving. The analysis of the comparison of the Tiger and the RAF P07 reporting curves will provide raw data which can be applied to the P07 in general.

 

So I wish to strongly encourage the owners of both databases to continue. How the data can ultimately be applied to other military equipment will be interesting. Statistics when applied without a political agenda is a fascinating subject.   

[MrEd]

I think it worth taking into account destruction in the UK due to our knife laws - that will definitely account for a _some_ reasonable figure of destruction in the UK atleast.

I recall a half dozen years ago a knife amnesty in my region and the police published photos of what had been handed in - most was tat and kitchen knives but there was definitely multiple bayonets of various types. Originally Once handed in to police they must be destroyed to ‘remove’ them from circulation. However in my area we now have a fab heritage crime team who actively sort through them (and handed in deacs) and anything of particular historical interest or value they are now allowed to dispose of them to registered museums.

there have been dozens of knife amnesties over the years in the UK and I shudder to think what had been melted down

Edited 4 February , 2023 by MrEd

[Chasemuseum]

Historical interest is in the eye of the beholder. It may well be that every P07 or P88 bayonet is considered by the experts as of no historical significance so that a 1908 HQ P07 in a mark I scabbard will burned in the same way as a P88 that was shortened for use as a combat knife for the SBS during WW2.  

[Will M]

From what I see at militaria shows the numbers in attendance do not equal 0.01% of the population, most likely even less since I have not done the math of a few hundred in a population of 7 million. Only some of these few collect bayonets. I find most collectors do not advertise their collecting on the web so trying to estimate remaining patterns of bayonets highly improbable at this point. A nice to know percentage but has no real value as we value bayonets by the numbers seen in our own collecting sphere. I don't believe we know how many 1907p bayonets with the hook remains. Over the decades i've seen bayonet patterns in quantity and then in short supply but has nothing to do with survivability of the item. Once the internet and EBay became a thing once thought rare items became far more common. Such items like bayonets  are decommissioned and sold realizing higher price than scrapping. more sensitive items like firearms are sold to other govts or scrapped. Bayonets being in private hands mostly we'll never truly know survivability rates. I have an Arms of the World 1911 showing huge amounts of old and obsolete weapons and gear for sale, not to mention Bannermans catalogues. 

[JMB1943]

Ross,

I hope you have recorded in the database, when individual bayonets have been reported. If the rate of reporting goes into significant decline, this will permit a statistical estimate of the ultimate number of these bayonets ever likely to be reported.

Smiling Tigers

Well, there's the rub! When I started this thread back in 2016, I had little thought that it would still be running 7 yrs later. I had anticipated that there would be an initial flurry of activity followed by a swift decline to essentially zero reports. Because of that thinking, I did not record the date of recoding until March 2021, when your compatriots (TRyan & Phil B ) unleashed the torrent of Tiger bayos in Australia; that torrent has slowed somewhat to a steady stream. I hope that in 2/3 yrs, the number recorded in say a 3-month period will have fallen significantly to barely above zero; five years total out to 2026 will give us about 20 quarters of data to look at.

The nightmare scenario is then that the curve only tends to zero at infinity!

RAF Bayonets

When we started looking at these, it was purely as a how / where / when puzzle, and there was no inherent interest in the survival rate.

As a consequence, we have no date information in the database.

Will M,

Bayonets being in private hands mostly we'll never truly know survivability rates.

You make some valid points in your comments, but the alternative to a survey such as this can only be conjecture. Some of the early posts in this thread address the "well what do you think?" issue. A survey puts the data on an, at least, semi-quantitative basis where we can offer an order-of-magnitude estimate.

The bigger problem, in my mind, has always been how to compare survivability rates between a world industrial power, the UK (large demand for scrap metal / many colonial & large wars) and a small, underdeveloped nation in SE Asia.

At the end of the day, statistical estimates are just that: estimates. However, good statistics can give good estimates.

Regards,

JMB

 

 

 

Edited 5 February , 2023 by JMB1943
typo

[Phil B]

This just popped up on eBay . Can even see the maker on this one . Enjoy the transition. Cheers Phil 

[t.ryan]

You are making it hard Phil B.

With that first number, it is a feral cat for sure. Could be 5221 but not sure; but whatever the number it should be a new one as I can,t see a ?221 ending number on JMBs list.

I came across another one which is also very feral and will add it to the list for checking. I think it is number 4335 but will let JMB look at both of them and see what he makes of each one.

Looks like both of the bad numbers were made by the same stamp.

Cheers,

TR

[t.ryan]

Better photo of Phils new number, it is S5221 for sure.

Cheers,

TR

[Phil B]

1 hour ago, t.ryan said:

You are making it hard Phil B.

With that first number, it is a feral cat for sure. Could be 5221 but not sure; but whatever the number it should be a new one as I can,t see a ?221 ending number on JMBs list.

I came across another one which is also very feral and will add it to the list for checking. I think it is number 4335 but will let JMB look at both of them and see what he makes of each one.

Looks like both of the bad numbers were made by the same stamp.

Cheers,

TR

If I buy it I’ll get a better photo 

Just found this on one of my fb pages I inhabit . Posted 3 days ago and I missed it … oh well