Numbers of British P.1907 bayonets surviving

[JMB1943]

I would like to enlist the help of the bayonet aficionados here to try to derive a guesstimate for the number of these bayonets that are still in existence.  They are plentiful on auction sites, but millions were produced.

To do this, I intend to use the 'Smiling Tiger' bayonets supplied by BSA to the government of Siam in 1920 as surrogates.  This was a contract for exactly 10,000, compared to the estimated production numbers for the P.'07 that are given in British & Commonwealth Bayonets (Skennerton & Richardson).

For my purposes, a survival rate of the Smiling Tigers in Siam/Thailand after 100 yrs will be assumed to be comparable to that of the P.'07 in the GW and post-war period.

I have one Smiling Tiger bayonet and am aware of 11 others.

If anybody has one, or has knowledge of numbers in museum collections (you can name) or in private collections (please do NOT name, unless it is YOUR collection) please let me know.

Regards,

JMB

[Edit: I am aware of 9 Vickers P. 07's of the approx. 10,000 produced by them.  This and the Smiling Tigers data would suggest initially a survival rate of about 1 in 1,000.]

 

Edited 19 August , 2016 by JMB1943
Additional info.

[msdt]

Hi JMB,

I am not sure that Smiling Tiger bayonets can be related to British service 1907's, for example. A pre-WW1 1907 could have seen service in 2 World Wars, so that alone would account for significant loss. Maybe there was almost no loss in service for the pussycats, so any loss is later. 

Your plan is interesting, and could be approached from several angles. Survival rates of pre-WW1 examples; by year of manufacture where production figures are known, etc.

l would guess quite a high survival rate of pussycats. I have seen at least 4 for sale at British fairs in the last year or so, one of which I bought.  A salient fact would be to know the history of those 10000 bayonets. Did the Thais dispose of them in one batch? Who purchased them from Thailand?

Plenty to keep you off the streets!!!

Cheers,

Tony

[JMB1943]

2 hours ago, msdt said:

Hi JMB

Plenty to keep you off the streets!!!

Cheers,

Tony

 

Tony,

Exactly ! Thanks for your input.

I realize that this could be an exercise in futility, with so many variables that it can only be a "guesstimate ". 

However, my baseline is that about 4.83 million P.07's were made in the UK and none were directed to the US.  Now there is a never-ending stream of those for sale in the US.  The Smiling Tigers were directed to Siam ONLY, and regardless of subsequent use/disposal they too have migrated back to the UK and to the US also.

Does an apparent survival of 1/1000 truly imply ca. 5,000 P. '07 bayonets afloat in world markets ? Yes it does, but does 5,000 seem right ?

As a collector yourself, who obviously keeps his eyes open, what would you guess is the ratio of Tigers to regular P.07's at the fairs you have attended over the years ?

I suspect that the initial 12 Tigers of which I am aware may be just the tip of the iceberg, so what I am trying to work out is how large the iceberg is. I'm really hoping that someone will have seen half a dozen in a museum or knows a collector who specializes in the Tigers.

Regards,

JMB

 

[msdt]

Hi JMB,

 

I'll give the survival rates some thought. As a pure plucked out of the air guess, Tigers to other 1907's I have seen for sale at fairs, maybe 1 to 100???

 

For an even bigger guess, I suspect that there are still several hundred thousand 1907's around!

 

Cheers,

 

Tony

[JMB1943]

On 8/20/2016 at 18:01, msdt said:

Hi JMB,

 

I'll give the survival rates some thought. As a pure plucked out of the air guess, Tigers to other 1907's I have seen for sale at fairs, maybe 1 to 100???

 

For an even bigger guess, I suspect that there are still several hundred thousand 1907's around!

 

Cheers,

 

Tony

Hello Tony.

 

If we play numbers with your guesses, using Tigers 10,000 made; P.07's 5,000,000 (for ease of calculation) made.

 

(a) The best case, should have 500 P.'07's for each Tiger remaining now.  This "best case" requires no Great War, and that Siam also did not change their SMLE rifles between 1920 & WW2 (or have their own wars).  I have not yet researched the Siam story.

(b) Let's round your "several hundred thousand P.07" to 250,000; this would be a 5% survival rate

(c) A 5% survival rate for the Tigers would be 500 remaining.

(d) The 18 Tigers (14 + 4) I am aware of is........an unknown %, but there are very likely many more of them out there.

 

If you had said that you thought about 100,000 P.'07's were still floating around, I could have just as well accepted that number.  These 'soft' numbers are just that, so I think I'll put this topic to bed.

By the by, that is a very nice P.88 w/scabbard & 4 C.L. !!

Regards,

JMB

 

 

 

 

[4thVBGH]

Interesting exercise.....I wish you well....I have one, bought locally in the 1970's from a local disposal along with a BSA contract Siamese SMLE......There were a considerable number of both though I've no idea how they came to be there or in what overall numbers.

 

Good luck,

 

Robert

Edited 24 August , 2016 by 4thVBGH

[JMB1943]

Hello Robert,

Thanks for your input, always nice to have somebody else to play the "what if...." scenario with.

Would you be able to quantify your "considerable" number of Tigers in that lot in the 70's ?  10-50, 50-100, more than 100 ?

Also, do you have any feel for the number of P.07's that seem to be still around ?  Obviously, no right or wrong answers to this game, just an educated guess from somebody who has been around for a number of years.

Did your Tiger come with the replacement sheet-metal scabbard (as mine did), or the original leather P.'07 scabbard ? I have seen only a single original scabbard in the last 4 yrs.

As Tony said, it keeps me off the streets !

Regards,

JMB

[4thVBGH]

Hello JMB,

 

Considerable numbers.......My recollection is more than 50.....bayonets around the same number....They appeared to be very common on my local collectors market for a number of years, rifles included and were usually shunned in favour of more popular mainstream manufacturers and variations....Though today, I haven't seen one in years. Mine has the sheet steel scabbard and has seen better days.

 

I can't recall the rifle serial number, though it was four digit, the bayonet has a three digit number.....I'll have to dig it out now and give it a look over.

 

Robert

 

 

[CoreyPilon]

Hello. old topic, but if i can help your cause. I am in Canada and own a Smiling Tiger 1907 bayonet. cheers!

[JMB1943]

I have resurrected this thread because I have recently become aware of a statistical method that will allow the number of survivors to be estimated.

The method relies on knowledge of the SERIAL NUMBERS of those Siamese P.1907 "Smiling Tiger" bayonets still out there.

The larger the database of numbers that can be generated, the more accurate will be the estimate.

I would ask any of you (4th VBGH & Corey Pilon etc) with a Smiling Tiger to post the serial # on this thread.

My own is numbered #6630 (???) and a second from an-online search is #8651 (???).

These two serials suggest that there are 4 surviving examples.

This is clearly nonsense, since I am already aware of a dozen or so, and is possibly due to my mis-transcription of the Siamese symbols or to the statistics of a very small sample size.

If we can get the dataset to about 10-20 numbers, the estimate should much more closely mirror the true number of survivors of the Siamese bayonets.

A percentage survival rate might then be applied to the regular P.1907 bayonet.

 

Regards,

JMB

Edited 1 December , 2018 by JMB1943
typo

[4thGordons]

I have 4 of the Siamese bayonets - not sure if I can get at them easily at the moment but I'll try.

All of the bayonets have sheet steel scabbards (2 different forms of construction)

I also have two of the rifles.

 

I would suggest that it is problematic to use the Siamese example (although I understand the reasoning!) however their service life (specialist guard unit) and location is atypical. In terms of methodology, there is also potentially another bit of a problem as it is my understanding that the Siamese examples were remarked former British service bayonets (so they are in both categories! As well as being part of the 10,000 they are also surviving British bayonets!).

Chris

[JMB1943]

Chris,

 

Don’t waste your time trying to get your bayonet serials.

I had misunderstood the stats method and now find that it will not do what I wanted it to do.

 

Regards,

JMB

 

[JMB1943]

 

Some more about about this issue of estimating the number of survivors from serial numbers.

An online search reveals that in WW2, statisticians were able to quite accurately estimate German tank production from the serial numbers of captured/destroyed tanks.

This is known as "The German Tank Problem."

"The formula may be understood intuitively as the sample maximum plus the average gap between observations in the sample, the sample maximum being chosen as the initial estimator, due to being the maximum likelihood estimator,^[d] with the gap being added to compensate for the negative bias of the sample maximum as an estimator for the population maximum,^[e] and written as

N = m + (m - k)/k = m + m/k -1 = m(1 + 1/k) -1"

credit: Wikipedia

This made me wonder if the reverse process could be used to estimate survivors where N is accurately known; I subsequently contacted a professional statistician and am awaiting his feedback.

In the meantime, my own collected data (18 samples; max. serial #9931) gives an estimate of Smiling Tiger bayonet production as

N = 9931(1 + 1/18) - 1 = 10,482 (this is ~5% error).

However, we know that there is an upper bound of N = 10,000.

If we force 

10,000 = 9931(1 + 1/S) -1 , where S is the number of survivors, then S = 142 (~1.5% of production).

Regards,

JMB

 

 

 

Edited 21 December , 2018 by JMB1943
clarifyequation

[trajan]

16 hours ago, JMB1943 said:

 

Some more about about this issue of estimating the number of survivors from serial numbers. ... 

 

I thought you were on holiday! And as for stats, well, my 12 year old knows more than I do so no further comment! But that figure of 142 looks reasonable to me...

[JMB1943]

I had given the statistician the following data,

 

Low serial =  330

High serial = 9331 (my error, should have been 9931)

Number of serials = 23

 

The answer that came back was about 112 still existing of the 10,000 made; the computation is quite involved and even with a PC, is time-consuming.

The statistician is a consultant who did the work for free, so I didn't feel comfortable about asking for a re-run.

Unfortunately, there is not a simple formula into which I can insert 9931 instead of 9331 to get a corrected answer.

My guess is that 112 would be increased slightly.

It is interesting to me that the value of 112 is not that far (i.e. not a multiple of) from the 142 generated above (post #13).

 

Extending 112 survivors of 10,000 Siam bayonets to the P.'07 gives about 55,000 survivors.

 

A very Happy New Year to all of us survivors of life!

 

Regards,

JMB

[trajan]

9 hours ago, JMB1943 said:

... Extending 112 survivors of 10,000 Siam bayonets to the P.'07 gives about 55,000 survivors.

 

A very Happy New Year to all of us survivors of life!

 

So, quite a few out there yet to find! 

 

And a Happy and Prosperous New Year to you JMB!

 

Me?, well the final exams and essay gradings start tomorrow, so not quite as happy a start as I would like...

 

Julian

[Dave66]

One has popped up on this thread here....

regards to all,

 

Dave.

[Marcsimps]

Hello,

 

I'm writing here because I have one of these bayonets that I purchased some time ago in Normandy. It took me a while to figure out exactly what it was. Let me know if you want me to provide any pictures.

 

Regards,

Marco

[JMB1943]

Hello Marc,

 

Welcome to the Forum.

Would you be able to post photos that show the numerals and the reverse side of the bayonet?

Always exciting to come across another Smiling Tiger!

 

Regards,

JMB

[Marcsimps]

Hello,

 

Here are the markings on mine. Don't hesitate to tell me if you want better pictures.

 

Regards,

Marco

Edited 12 March , 2021 by Marcsimps

[JMB1943]

Marco,

 

Thanks for the photos; they show the usual appearance of these Siamese bayonets.

The serial number to me looks like "2833"; either corrosion or grease beneath the numerals.

Did you buy this with its sheet-steel scabbard?

Have you visited the military museums in Bruxelles to look at bayonets et al.?

 

Regards,

JMB

Edited 6 March , 2022 by JMB1943

[Marcsimps]

Hello,

 

Thanks for the help on the serial number, what you see underneath is in fact grease. I did buy it with its scabbard which sadly has a few dents, but nothing too serious (here's a picture of the full bayonet). About the museum in Brussels, I actually got accepted there recently for a traineeship (I start in a few weeks). I might have to ask them if they have any Smiling Tigers laying around somewhere!

 

Regards,

Marco

[trajan]

I suspect that ever since the death of Dangre, the bayonets in Brussels have not had the attention they need - good luck with the traineeship, and we look forward to your reports when and if you can! 

[JMB1943]

Marco,

 

Thanks for the photo, again that looks just like my scabbard.

You obviously have a diverse collection of GW militaria.

Could you give us the story of the Union Flag on the wall?

Enjoy your time at the military museum, they must have quite some treasures in the basement.

I am more than a little envious of you.

 

Regards,

JMB

[Marcsimps]

20 hours ago, trajan said:

I suspect that ever since the death of Dangre, the bayonets in Brussels have not had the attention they need - good luck with the traineeship, and we look forward to your reports when and if you can! 

Last time I went to the museum (a couple of months ago) the whole Great War section was closed for renovation, hopefully it will be open when I go. I'll try to report on any interesting experiences if I can!

 

Marco