It will be over before Christmas...

[andigger]

In the thread below I mentioned and discussed Ian Beckett's book on First Ypres. I've still very much enjoyed the book although his chapter on Army Group Fabeck was thick and harder to digest. There was a quote from Kitchner which I hope some of y'all good banter about regarding sending more troops in the new year. He made this comment to Poincare, Joffre, Foch and Millerand in Dunkirk on 1 Nov.

"Kitchner, however, made it clear that he was not prepared to send untrained troops to Flandersand that fresh British forces would be unlikely to take the field before the Spring of 1915." (p 148)

When did it become obvious to command that the war was not going to be over by Christmas or even in a 6 month time frame. I use command loosely, but am think more of the men in GHQ\HQG\OHL rather than the trenches.

First Ypres thread

Andy

[jdajd]

December 26th?

[andigger]

Thanks jdajd... I was waiting for that response.

[armourersergeant]

Kitchener thought from the start that it would be a long war and said as much to the cabinet from day one.

General Snow who took 4th div to france in 1914 told Edmonds his GSO1 as they crossed over the channel that it would be a long war, that they would not be back for a long while!

I think this 'over by christmas' thing is over sold. I have only scant proof but I think many would have realised that they were in for a long haul.

regards

Arm.

[GrandsonMichael]

I would say sometime in November when it became more and more clear that this was not a 'classic' war of movement, but that the armies had dug in and it was going to be a 'trench' war.

By his time it was also clear that the regular army was decimated and loads of fresh recruits were needed....

Cheers,

Michael

[Tom Morgan]

Before you you can speculate on when "command" realised that the war would not be over by Christmas, you have to establish that they started off thinking that the war WOULD be over by Christmas.

I don't think there is a great deal of solid evidence for this assumption.

Tom

[doogal]

Kitchener thought from the start that it would be a long war and said as much to the cabinet from day one.

Hi

From a (very) general knowledge of Kitchener and his approach to campaigning in The Sudan, I'd add that whatever the assumed duration in 1914, I think Kitchener may well have have planned on a large scale in terms of logistics whatever happened - for example, his thoroughness as a general and engineer in the Sudan meant that he built a railway right through the country to get at the Khalifa(?). He seemed eager to work on a grand scale. Luckily for us?

regards

doogal

[BMoorhouse]

I think that the line that the war would be over quickly was most often heard from recruiting staff.

[AndyHollinger]

I tend to believe as Tom does and BMoorhouse ... the War over by Christmas seems to be a generally held notion advertised once it didn't ... it could be a myth started to show how wrong the politicos and "generals" were ... ie no basis in fact.

[Ali Hollington]

I feel that it was the public perception, probably fostered by the media that the war could be wrapped up so quickly. As already mentioned Kitchener had a long view and bearing in mind the time taken to build up the forces (albeitly quick) it would be some stretch to be home/over for Xmas.

Another possibility is that it could have been tied into the German plans which I believe called for France to be defeated in 40ish days.

Ali

[Muerrisch]

Official doctrine [chapter and verse available] was that, IN THE FIRST YEAR of a major European war, the infantry would need 80% replacements. On this figure were the Reserve and the Special Reserve based.

I think no responsible senior officer, very few juniors, and no WO/SNCO with Boer War service, saw things other than a long bitter haul.

[PhilB]

As you gentlemen above say, nobody with an eye on recruiting figures is going to say publicly that it`s going to be long and (very) hard! Did K ever say it publicly? In fact, is there any printed evidence of anyone saying it? Phil B

[BMoorhouse]

In fact, is there any printed evidence of anyone saying it?

I have seen it commented on in the early war - ie Aug/Sept '14 (I believe it was Major Shea MP at a recruiting rally in Yeovil - but don't have my reference material to hand) that the war would not last longer than 18 months as it would bankrupt the European powers if it went on longer. How wrong and right he was!

Brendon.

[John_Hartley]

My understanding is that the phrase "over by Christmas" was coined by the tabloid press of the day. Presumably this was intended to encourage recruitment by an appeal to patriotism but also along the lines of the "great but brief adventure".

The phrase seems to originate from the Anglo/Boer War. Seeing as that manifestly wasn't over by Christmas, you have to wonder why the press would coin it again.

John

[Ste]

Accepting the fact that senior Allied soldiers probably did not subscribe to the 'over by Christmas' theory in the first place, I propose two points at which it became clear that this would be a long hall:

- The moment in mid September when Kluck and Bulow, being to the East of Paris, realised that although the BEF/French Armies opposite had not actually defeated them, they would be forced to retreat in order to close gaps in their front and counter the threat of having their right flank turned. The great turning march around Paris, as intended by von Schlieffen, had already been abandoned in the face of events in favour of a double envelopment, which seemed to offer Moltke great possibilities for a few days. When this failed, the whole German plan for a short war - defeat France quickly and then move east - failed with it, leaving them looking for a new plan.

In this context, it is probably a more appropriate question to ask when the Germans realised that the war would not be over by Christmas, given that their plan dictated a short war.

- Secondly, even after the misleadingly named 'miracle of the Marne', opportunities for a decisive military victory existed, especially during the so-called 'race to the sea' (I detect a trend towards dubious names here...). The most famous example of such an opportunity came during the crisis of First Ypres, when scratch companies of any Brit who could hold a rifle were plugging gaps, forming a thin line between the Germans and the road to the Channel Ports. It is not inconceivable that a breakthrough here could have led to the wholesale defeat or evacuation of the BEF.

The French, of course, might well have been able to fight on. However, German failure to make the most of their opportunities in Flanders during October and November meant that any final chance of a decision by Christmas had slipped from them.

Cheers,

Ste