Ivan Bloch

[rmtruby]

I've just been reading about the pre-war period and I came across Ivan Bloch's prediction from 1898, that modern war was 'impossible', because it was so destructive that no nation could sustain the human and economic loss that war would bring about.

Does anyone have any more information on this man and his pre-war analysis of world affairs?

Thanks

Ray

[Guest Biplane pilot]

Predictions of The End of War have likely been with us nearly as long as clubs and pointy sticks. Most peculiar, given humans' predeliction for sanguinary events.

For reasons known only to himself, some 30 years ago Sir John keegan spoiled his generally excellent [/i]Face of Battle with with the conclusion, "the suspicion grows that the face of battle has already abolished itself." Whatever prompted him to make such an absurd declaration ought to prompt second thoughts among readers of his other books.

It's not limited to pundits, however. IIRC, in 1949 when Russia exploded its first nuke, Gen. Omar Bradley (chairman of the joint chiefs) declared that amphibious operations were henceforth "impossible" owing to the need to concentrate ships & troops.

Lapse-dissolve, fast forward one year.

Inchon!

[Tom Morgan]

I remember reading a further reference to M. Bloch (a Polish banker, I think.) It may have been in the introduction to "In Flanders Fields" by Leon Woolff. Anyway, M. Bloch is quoted as predicting thart a future war would be war of entrenchments, with the soldier finding his shovel as important as his rifle.

Tom

[AndyHollinger]

I remember reading a further reference to M. Bloch (a Polish banker, I think.) It may have been in the introduction to "In Flanders Fields" by Leon Woolff. Anyway, M. Bloch is quoted as predicting thart a future war would be war of entrenchments, with the soldier finding his shovel as important as his rifle.

Tom

Tom good to "see" you again .. M Bloch is more probably - Marc Bloch a very famous French Historian who was a key figure in the "modern" secular and economic movement in the "craft."

I am not sure if he fought or was "close" to the war but his analysis of feudalism was highly based on weapons technology. Mind you its been 30 years since I read him, but I believe he wrote about the development of weapons technology and the financial state behind the implementation of this technology that guided the fate of nations ...

My copy of In Flanders Fields is introduced by P.H. Liddel Hart, though the table of contents gives JFC Fuller ... there is an editor's note summarizing the previous, first edition, Introduction ...

[rmtruby]

Thanks for the replies. I was wondering whether Bloch was responsible for coining the expression "balance of power", in his analysis of pre-war international politics.

Thanks

Ray

[bmac]

Rather than start a new thread, might as well carry on here. I am currently skipping through 'The Future of War' by the Polish Jewish banker Jean (or Ivan) de Bloch (also known as Jan Gotlib (Bogumil) Bloch and in Russia as Ivan Stanislavovich Bloch). Published in 1898 it attempts to set out the reasons why war between the great states of Europe was now no longer possible as it carried the threat of the effective mutual destruction of the nations and societies which went to war as a result of economic and social collapse. More than happy to discuss the numerous points in his thesis but I was struck by his description of the modern battlefield which appears in an interview conducted in London shortly before his death and which was published, prophetically, in a new edition in 1914. His description was:

"Certainly, everybody will be entrenched in the next war. It will be a great war of entrenchments. The spade will be as indispensable to a soldier as his rifle. The first thing every man will have to do, if he cares for his life at all, will be to dig a hole in the ground, and throw up as strong an earthen rampart as he can to shield him from the hail of bullets which will fill the air." (Date 1898)

Although some of his predictions failed to come about, some, perhaps, as a result of new technologies of which he had no knowledge when the book was written, and although he seems to have misjudged mankind's willingness to relentlessly slaughter one another, he does judge the nature of the next great European war nicely something which most military thinkers much closer to the outbreak of war failed to do. I wonder if there is any documentary evidence of any leading British, French or German officers who, pre-war, assessed as accurately the way in which the war would be mainly conducted. If anyone has any documentary evidence of such thinking I would be pleased to be directed towards it.

[bodie31]

Michael Howard's article "Men Against Fire" is a great introduction to Bloch. I highly suggest checking it out, as Bloch's original is rather heavy.

Bodie

[bmac]

I downloaded Vol 6, the digest, of Bloch's book. It certainly is not for the faint-hearted. I will check out the Howard piece. Thanks for the reference.

[Martin Bennitt]

There's a piece about him in this month's History Today, plus a podcast

http://www.historytoday.com/paul-reynolds/man-who-predicted-great-war

http://www.historytoday.com/blog/2013/04/podcast-man-who-predicted-first-world-war

cheers Martin B

[bmac]

Martin, good link thanks.