The Great War in Numbers

[paulgranger]

A six part series that starts tonight at 9 pm. A view of the Great War in statistical terms. No idea what it will be like, but I've set for recording to find out

[Knotty]

Thanks for the timely reminder, I think I read it on here a week or so ago, but in true fashion totally forgot about it.

 

John

[17107BM]

 

 

Thanks for the reminder.

 

Hope its ok. 

[Black Maria]

Not greatly impressed by it to be honest . I know there is only so much original film of the 1914 period available but they kept using footage of

the Somme to fill the gaps and even a clip of 'All Quiet on the Western Front ' when showing the fighting at Tannenberg . The narrative was also

a bit dodgy at times , had the British army really been " decimated " before the battle of the Marne ?

[paulgranger]

A bit miffed, as my TV has lost the Yesterday channel, and stubbornly refuses to retune it back. However, I have found I can catch up online, and may do so, though your comments do not suggest a must-see offering

[Black Maria]

5 minutes ago, paulgranger said:

A bit miffed, as my TV has lost the Yesterday channel, and stubbornly refuses to retune it back. However, I have found I can catch up online, and may do so, though your comments do not suggest a must-see offering

Most of these types of programmes seem to draw a mixed reaction from the forum so it's worth watching . Even though I wasn't greatly impressed by the first

episode I will still watch the rest of the series.

[Dai Bach y Sowldiwr]

28 minutes ago, paulgranger said:

A bit miffed, as my TV has lost the Yesterday channel, and stubbornly refuses to retune it back. However, I have found I can catch up online, and may do so, though your comments do not suggest a must-see offering

That suggests there's been a software upgrade, and you need to retune your box/TV/ or rescan for channels.

Beware, lots of channels have recently changed numbers, eg BBC news channel changed from 130 to 231.

[phil andrade]

54 minutes ago, Black Maria said:

Not greatly impressed by it to be honest . I know there is only so much original film of the 1914 period available but they kept using footage of

the Somme to fill the gaps and even a clip of 'All Quiet on the Western Front ' when showing the fighting at Tannenberg . The narrative was also

a bit dodgy at times , had the British army really been " decimated " before the battle of the Marne ?

 

Having recorded it on hard drive, I just took a quick sniff at the first three minutes before settling down to watch it properly later.

 

My impression is favourable. More than that, I'm enthusiastic.

 

A little taken back at the claim that 30% of all men in Europe aged 19 to 22 at the outbreak were dead by the end of it : circumspection required here, to say the least !

 

As for the British Army being decimated by the beginning of September 1914 - I haven't reached that bit yet -  it's true that,  from the initial deployment of well  under 100,000 who disembarked with the BEF in France in mid August, 15,000 casualties had been sustained by the end of the Great Retreat, which does equate to something  significantly worse than decimation if we include dead, wounded and prisoners .

 

 

 

Phil

Edited 5 October , 2017 by phil andrade

[MikeyH]

I missed the first few minutes, was a fairly interesting programme, not sure if constantly being bombarded with numbers and figures was a good thing.  Unable to recall any of them now!

Will watch the next episodes with interest.

 

Mike.

[TTracer44]

1 hour ago, paulgranger said:

A bit miffed, as my TV has lost the Yesterday channel, and stubbornly refuses to retune it back. However, I have found I can catch up online, and may do so, though your comments do not suggest a must-see offering

When retuning it often helps to run first with the arial disconected, this gets rid of the previous batch then run it again with arial connected.

Den

[paulgranger]

4 minutes ago, TTracer44 said:

When retuning it often helps to run first with the arial disconected, this gets rid of the previous batch then run it again with arial connected.

Den

Den

Thanks, I'll try that. I've already retuned twice without success with the aerial connected, so your suggestion is worth a punt.

[Medaler]

2 minutes ago, paulgranger said:

Den

Thanks, I'll try that. I've already retuned twice without success with the aerial connected, so your suggestion is worth a punt.

 

This may sound daft, but I have noticed that I get better results with re-tuning when its not raining and there is not much cloud about.

 

Regards,

Mike

[paulgranger]

Mike,

no it's not daft, I've found the same before now. High wind can seem to be a problem too, so I shall choose a flat clam sunny day before I try again.

[Don Regiano]

7 minutes ago, paulgranger said:

Den

Thanks, I'll try that. I've already retuned twice without success with the aerial connected, so your suggestion is worth a punt.

 

If that doesn't work, unplug at the mains - leave the plug out for at least 30 seconds then try again.  If all else fails, reset the tv - am assuming your tv is not tuning and it is just not yesterday you are not getting re-tuned.

[Medaler]

1 minute ago, paulgranger said:

Mike,

no it's not daft, I've found the same before now. High wind can seem to be a problem too, so I shall choose a flat clam sunny day before I try again.

 

I will expect an update next June then!

 

Mike

[paulgranger]

Gentlemen, I will try all the options again tonight, assuming the wind drops, and will report back, but will do so in Skindles, as we have strayed some distance from the original topic

[Guest]

It is possible to watch this for free online. Click. Simply register. It takes about 30 seconds.

 

I have watched episode 1 and 17 minutes into Episode 2 we get the old chestnut that  

 

"the average life expectancy of British Army pilots becomes just 11 days...."

 

There are a ton of other dubious stats thrown around with abandon. That aside I found it quite interesting. 

[phil andrade]

All in all, it was better than I had expected, and my initial enthusiasm is upheld.

 

Yes, too many vignettes from classic war films juxtaposed with the odd authentic scenes from 1914.

 

Considering how dreadful some TV documentaries on the Great War have been,  I would endorse this as head and shoulders above the norm and heartily recommend it.

 

Phil

[Staffsyeoman]

I was reminded of that old adage "There are lies, damned lies and statistics".   We developed this to "lies, damned lies, statistics and government statistics". My personal working version was  "iies, damned lies, statistics, government statistics and Chinese government statistics"

 

Keeping an open mind thus far.  

[phil andrade]

Do you remember a thread that we had on GWF about the legendary MG barrage on the Somme, and Seton Hutchison's claim that the MGs fired a million rounds in twelve hours ?

 

That was cited as fact.

 

Another thing that bothered me was the statement that one third of all military deaths in the war were attributable to disease.  This must be refuted.

 

Quibbles aside, I still hold the thing in high regard and look forward to more.

 

Phil

[Andrew Upton]

8 hours ago, phil andrade said:

Do you remember a thread that we had on GWF about the legendary MG barrage on the Somme, and Seton Hutchison's claim that the MGs fired a million rounds in twelve hours ?

 

That was cited as fact.

 

I recall the thread well, and have to ask - what's changed? My post 14 quite comprehensively shows the maths backs up firing nearly 1,000,000 rounds in 12 hours is entirely feasible, plus compares well to he famous incident in 1963 where a single Vickers guns fired continuously for 7 days and nights and in the process averaged over 495 rounds a minute under ideal conditions (compared to a supposed average rate of 140 rounds a minute under 1916 frontline conditions if the figures as stated are to be believed, and I think they are):

 

 

[phil andrade]

Yes, agreed...the arithmetic is plausible for that million rounds.

 

The fact that the series actually mentions this episode indicates how far it is predicated on some comprehensive research ; even into the more obscure aspects of statistics.

 

I did find myself agitated when reference was made to one billion shells, or fifty billion bullets....were these  billions British, or American ?

 

The thing was clarified by figures on display...these are yankee billions.

 

Surprised that no allusion has yet been made to the preponderance of casualties caused by artillery : a lot of emphasis on machine guns being so deadly ; perhaps I missed something.

 

Phil

[Guest]

While firing a million rounds is technically possible and I would argue not that difficult, the later anecdotes don't actually match the War Diary. the 99,500 as a possible error for 995,000 aside, a lot of the other facts don't stack up with the quite detailed war diary.

 

The war diary has the preliminary Op Order, the amended Op Order, a detailed diary entry that bullet points the breakdown of the dispositions of each machine gun, the names of each commander of various sections, a map showing the dispositions of each gun  or group of guns and a detailed summary. The Brigade Headquarters diary also has some detail that relates. There are around a dozen pages that directly relate to this. The context, particularly the logistics, very strongly suggests this was a barrage of considerable weight and intensity.

 

The most critical aspect is that the barrage was fired by a group of just six machine guns (A Section and D Section less two guns), with one in reserve; presumably on standby if one had a catastrophic mechanical failure. The diary tells us exactly how many ammunition boxes each gun started with (24) , how many in immediate reserve (4 boxes per pair of machine guns), plus 130 boxes SAA in 1st reserve, how many belt filling machines there were, plus an unknown quantity with the limbers etc  Separate to this Battery there were nine other Machine guns under the 100th MG Coy command which had a variety of tasks - mostly moving forward with the various battalions or providing local support.  The logistic challenge of keeping these guns resupplied as they advanced would I think have been much greater.  I suspect, but cannot prove that the dynamics of the guns in close support of the advancing infantry and the dynamics of the static battery have become conflated. The long and the short of it is that the 99,500 rounds in the diary (or 995,000 depending on which theory one cares to believe) relates only to the battery of six guns and does not include the nine others plus the reserve gun.

 

The one million rounds in the context of sixteen guns (the total available to OC 100th MGC) or just the six machine guns in the battery, seems logistically quite easy. The limit factor would have been the number of pre-prepared belts, the number of belts available and the speed at which belts could be filled (one belt-filling machine per two guns) all done at night. 

 

While I don't doubt 995,000 rounds were fired, it is impossible to reconstruct this exact number from the diary using the later anecdotal claims. For example if we are to believe the largest number of rounds fired by a single gun was 120,000 and there were six guns in the Battery, the maths doesn't stack up. Some or all of the other nine machine guns and possibly the reserve machine gun must have been included in the calculation. If this is correct then the feat can not be solely attributed to the 'Battery'. Just a thought. 

 

Incidentally if one can be bothered it is worth plodding through the whole diary. It provides critical context in the form of later MG Battery fire plans and the amount of ammunition expended per minute. In one example the first 63 minutes MG barrage require a rate of fire of 350 rpm (split into four separate phases/targets). To save you the maths that equates to 22,050 rounds per machine gun or a hourly rate of 21,000 rounds.per machine gun. If a machine gun sustained this rate of fire for six hours, it would fire 126,000 rounds.The barrage in question lasted the best part of 12 hours.

 

MG

[Steven Broomfield]

12 hours ago, phil andrade said:

 

 

I did find myself agitated when reference was made to one billion shells, or fifty billion bullets....were these  billions British, or American ?

 

The thing was clarified by figures on display...these are yankee billions.

 

 

Sadly, the American usage of 'billion' (or a thousand million as you ad I would call it) appears to have become common currency.

[Dai Bach y Sowldiwr]

9 hours ago, Steven Broomfield said:

 

Sadly, the American usage of 'billion' (or a thousand million as you ad I would call it) appears to have become common currency.

Yes, I think that the Chancellor of the Exchequer stated in a budget many years ago (maybe the 1970s) that HMG would henceforth use the American form. It's been downhill ever since.