1st Ypres Incredible Artillery statistic. Please clarify.

[neverforget]

I have been struck by a statistic presented within Ian Beckett`s book entitled "Ypres. The first battle 1914."

Over the years I have found it to be an amazing resource for information pertaining to the above, and a most thorough account of the battle, and it`s four protagonists.

For anyone who has it, on page 115, he says......

."Between 21 October and 22 November, for example, 1 Corps expended 54% of all the 18 pounder shells, 53% of all the 4.5 howitzer shells, and 57% of all the 60 pounder shells it would fire between August 1914 and November 1918."

Am I missing something here, as I just can`t accept this statistic, despite my high regard for the book?

[Coldstreamer]

did 1 corps change what they did after 1914 ? As an Guardsman these figures seem high to me - would have thought the Somme campaigns would have used more ?

or did shell size they use change ? just throwing out some ideas

[spof]

My first thought was that the Corps didn't have command of the artillery units for the whole war. This bit "53% of all the 4.5 howitzer shells, and 57% of all the 60 pounder shells it would fire between August 1914 and November 1918." might back that up as I thought the RGA eventually ended up under Army control.

It might be worth using the Full Editor to include the word "artillery" in the title to attract the attention of people who know something about the subject.

[neverforget]

My first thought was that the Corps didn't have command of the artillery units for the whole war. This bit "53% of all the 4.5 howitzer shells, and 57% of all the 60 pounder shells it would fire between August 1914 and November 1918." might back that up as I thought the RGA eventually ended up under Army control.

It might be worth using the Full Editor to include the word "artillery" in the title to attract the attention of people who know something about the subject.

Many thanks, both to yourself and to Coldstreamer. It seems such a remarkable claim, that I felt I had to have it checked out by our resident experts. There has to be an explanation. Will edit the title as suggested.

[Ron Clifton]

It would be plausible if "November 1918" is a mistake for "November 1914". That is, over half al the ammunition it had fired up to the cut-off date for the 1914 Star was fired from 22 October onwards.

Ron

[Muerrisch]

Yes, agreed ............ for starters I seem to recall that they did not have many shells available at 1st Ypres.

[nigelcave]

I rather suspect that it is a typo, as Ron says.

[neverforget]

Surely it has to is a typo. That was my first thought.

But if it is, I would have expected to have seen it worded differently. I.E. If he was talking about just 1914, I would have expected to see " between August and November 1918", and not " between August 1914 and November 1918." In short, if he was referring to just one year, I wouldn`t have expected him to enter the year twice. I don`t know if that makes sense to anyone else, but it did give me the impression that it probably wasn`t a typo after all.

It does seem to be the most likely explanation though.

[phil andrade]

Typo.

This happens all the time, and it's particularly distressing when it occurs in books written by authors of high repute.

Here's a good example of another one, from Robert T. Foley's GERMAN STRATEGY AND THE PATH TO VERDUN, page 178 : alluding to the German casualties in the Champagne battle of September to October 1915

" The Germans, however, had suffered too ; the defenders had lost around 17,000 officers and 80,000 men."

A tenfold error in the number of officer casualties. These mistakes are so frequent.

Phil (PJA)

[neverforget]

Thanks to everyone for your thoughts. I think I can now safely put it down as a typo, and assume that he is referring just to 1914.

Still an excellent book though, and one that I would thoroughly recommend.

[nigelfe]

I suspect it was the stocks available in Europe (incl UK) during the period Aug - Nov 14. The prewar stock holdings were deemed reasonably at the time, by autumn 1914 this had been revealed to be extreme wishful thinking, they were a minute fraction of total wartime production and expenditure. Referring to 1918 is a typo. I suggest the relevant volumes of the History of the Ministry of Munitions for reliable numbers of post 1914 ammo production.

[Ron Clifton]

"Statistics" also has some figures on ammunition production.

Ron

[Guest]

I would tend to agree that it is likely to be a typo but some rough calcs might suggest it is not orders of magnitude away from reality.......It might be out by a factor of 2... Some VERY rough calcs:

SMEBE's artillery ammunition stats only summarise numbers from Aug 1914 to 3rd Apr 1915, thereafter providing bi-monthly and then monthly stats to 23rd Nov 1918. Take the 18-pdrs as an example;

Ammunition Sent to France.

...............................Aug 1914-Apr 15................Apr 1915-Nov 1918................Total Aug 1914-Nov 18.................Aug 1914-Apr1915/Total

18 pdr shells.............1,341,748............................106,455,814..............................107,797,562...................................1.24%

But... as we know the Army expanded. Separately SMEBE provides the number of Guns in France from Apr 1915 onward;

................................Apr 1915...Nov 15...Nov 16...Nov 17....Nov 18

18 pdrs......................625.........1,533......2,713......3,097......3,144

I Corps Artillery according to OH France and Belgium Vol II included 54 108 18-Pdrs

1 Div

XXV Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

113 Bty

114 Bty

115 Bty

XXVI Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

116 Bty

117 Bty

118 Bty

XXXIX Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

46 Bty

51 Bty

54 Bty

XLIII How Bde RFA - 18 x 4.5" How

30 Bty

40 Bty

57 Bty

26 Hy Bty RGA - 4 x 60 pdrs

2 Div:

XXXIV Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

22 Bty

50 Bty

70 Bty

XXXVI Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

15 Bty

48 Bty

71 Bty

XLI Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

9 Bty

16 Bty

17 Bty

XLIV How Bde RFA - 18 x 4.5" How

47 Bty

56 Bty

60 Bty

35 Hy Bty RGA - 4 x 60 pdrs

Numbers adjusted to reflect both Divs;

54 108 x 18 pdrs

18 36 x 4.5" Hows

4 8 x 60 pdrs

Just taking the 18-pdrs I Corps had roughly one third two sevenths of the RFA's 18-pdrs at First Ypres (II and III Corps had similar levels each and 7th Div arrived before First Ypres started). We can assume they accounted for roughly one third two-sevenths of the 1.34 million 18-pdr shells fired between Aug 1914 and Apr 1915 - or about 447,000 383,357 18-pdr shells. If this wider date bracket represented 54% of all shells fired by these guns during the war, it implies I Corps guns fired 828,000 710,000 18-pdr shells in total during the war. More generous assumptions might push this figure towards 1,000,000 shells*

We can attempt to resolve this against the other stats;

1. We know from the tables above that close to 108 million 18-pdr shells were expended on the Western Front during the war. If the above calc is anywhere close to reality, it implies that I Corps' original 18-Pdrs accounted for about 0.8% of all 18-pdr shells fired on the Western Front during the war.

2. I Corps' oriniginal 54 108 18-Pdrs would only represent just 6.7% of all 18-Pdrs on the Western Front in Nov 1915 and just 3.4% by Nov 1918 onward. Assuming a weighted average of 3,000 18-Pdrs from Nov 1915 onward when the ammunition crisis was beginning to be solved, this means I Corps' original 108 18-pdrs were roughly 3.6% of all 18-pdrs on the Western Front . Assuming they all fired roughly the same proportion of the 108 million 18-pdr shells this would imply I Corps's 108 guns would account for 3.89 million 18-pdr shells.

* One might argue the I Corps proportion were higher as III Corps arrived late in the 1914 campaign when ammunition stocks would already have been depleted. Two-fifths might be a closer approximation or 537,000 18-pdr shells; If this was 54% of all ammunition expended, these guns would in theory have fired 994,000 shells during the war, or 0.92% of the total fired on the Western Front.

I stress these are VERY rough calcs, but perhaps indicate that the error might not be as wide as one might think. MG

Edit. Any mistakes are mine. These numbers need to be checked.

Edited to reflect 54 x 18 Pdr guns per Div and the presence of 7th Div at First Ypres. Amended numbers in blue.

[neverforget]

Much food for thought there, Martin. Many thanks. Also, many thanks to Nigelfe and Ron.

As per my previous posts, my original gut feeling was that it wasn`t a simple typo because of the wording. Thus my original reason for posting.

After being persuaded away from this thought by the very rational typo theory, I have now gone back to thinking more that the claim will probably be found to be borne out by statistics one way or another.

I have sent the author an e-mail, directing him towards this thread, so with any luck, if he is kind enough, and has enough time to spare, he may reply, and we will hear it straight from the horses mouth so to speak.

Once again, thanks to all for your interest and contributions.

[Guest]

Much food for thought there, Martin. Many thanks. Also, many thanks to Nigelfe and Ron.

As per my previous posts, my original gut feeling was that it wasn`t a simple typo because of the wording. Thus my original reason for posting.

After being persuaded away from this thought by the very rational typo theory, I have now gone back to thinking more that the claim will probably be found to be borne out by statistics one way or another.

I have sent the author an e-mail, directing him towards this thread, so with any luck, if he is kind enough, and has enough time to spare, he may reply, and we will hear it straight from the horses mouth so to speak.

Once again, thanks to all for your interest and contributions.

I think I may have to revise the assumptions.

SMEBE provides monthly data for 18 Pdrs and ammunition, so it is possible to calculate the average number of rounds fired per gun per month* and total the numbers. From Apr 1915 onward each 18 pdr fired on average 1,002 rounds per month. Over the 44 months from Apr 1915 that would make 44,088 rounds per gun (on average)

Prior to Apr 1915, 1.34 million rounds were fired. If say 80% were fired off during First Ypres, that would imply roughly 1.07 million rounds of 18-pdr ammunition. Between I, II and III Corps there were 3 x 54 108 18-Pdrs (in theory) meaning 324 guns. On average each might have fired something in the region of 3,308 rounds, i.e 7.5% of the amount fired off per gun from Apr 1915 onward. Even if all 1.34 million rounds were fired at First Ypres, this still only comes to 4,136 18-pdr shells per gun....still only 9.4% of all rounds fired (per gun) from Apr 1915 onward.

On this basis I think it impossible improbable Please ignore previous calc on Post #13

Still, it does perhaps illustrate how intensive 1914 was relative to the rest of the war.

Any mistakes are mine. MG

Edited: 108 18-Pdrs per Corps not 54. All numbers adjusted are shown in blue. 8/4/15. MG

* Peak was May 1917 at 1,688 rounds per gun...still only averaging 56 rounds per day.

Trough was Jan 1916 at 333 rounds per gun

[David Filsell]

Check it out with Ian. He's not prone to mistakes or carelessness and is most approachable.

[Guest]

Here are the official stats for 18-Pdr ammunition (all types) sent to France and Flanders during the War.

Note that the for early part of the war the numbers were consolidated for Aug 1914-Mar 1915. I have simply spread the numbers for these periods in proportion to the number of guns available for each month. This is almost certainly going to under-estimate the number of rounds fired during First Ypres as it does not factor-in the intensity of the fighting at Ypres.

As an extreme 'check' one could assume a very high proportion of the ammunition was fired off during First Ypres. Even if 100% of the 1.34m shells fired in this eight month period were fired off at First Ypres the average number of rounds per gun fired would be 3,550, equivalent to 111 rounds per day, every day of First Ypres. For Apr 1915 to Nov 1914 the average RPGPM was 91 - every month for 44 months meaning the average 18-pdr gun fired 40,172 rounds during this period. If is difficult to see how the claim can stand up against this backdrop. [Numbers edited to adjust for 54 x 18-Pdrs per Div (108 per Corps) and the presence of seven Divs for the whole period of First Ypres]

Edit.As an aside, having now read the relevant quote, the whole context of the passage is one of shortages of ammunition... only two lines a later ; "Roberston reporting on 16th November that the stock of 18-pounder shells was still very small indeed, the stock of 4.5-inch shells 'hopeless' and the supply of 9.2-inch howitzer shells decreasing by the day". Also the paragraph preceding the quote makes the point that at 4 rounds per minute the 18-Pdr ammunition allocated at the start of the war would have been fired-off in under seven hours of continuous firing.; the implication being there was less than 1,680 rounds per 18-Pdr gun.

The interpolated data is in red. The average number of rounds fired per gun per month (RPGPM) is shown in the final column.

The main assumption is that over the period of the war all guns fired the same number of rounds.

Any mistakes are mine. MG

Edited with amended stats.

Source: Statistics of the Military Effort of the British Empire During the Great War 1914-1919.

[Ron Clifton]

...

I Corps Artillery according to OH France and Belgium Vol II included 54 18-Pdrs

XXV Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

113 Bty

114 Bty

115 Bty

XXVI Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

116 Bty

117 Bty

118 Bty

XXXIX Bde RFA - 18 x 18-pdrs

46 Bty

51 Bty

54 Bty

XLIII How Bde RFA - 18 x 4.5" How

30 Bty

40 Bty

57 Bty

16 Hy Bty RGA - 4 x 60 pdrs

i.e

54 x 18 pdrs

18 x 4.5" Hows

4 x 60 pdrs

...

Edit. Any mistakes are mine. These numbers need to be checked.

Martin

This is the artillery of 1 DIVISION (not Corps) in August 1914, except forthe minor typo which is that the Heavy Battery was 26, not 16. Double these numbers for 2 Div to get the total for I Corps.

Ron

[Guest]

Martin

This is the artillery of 1 DIVISION (not Corps) in August 1914, except forthe minor typo which is that the Heavy Battery was 26, not 16. Double these numbers for 2 Div to get the total for I Corps.

Ron

OK - I will amend. It simply means that the numbers are twice as difficult to achieve: double the guns firing half the rate. Thanks for pointing it out. MG

Assumptions changed to reflect 54 x 18-Pdrs per Div (108 for I Corps) and the numbers followed through the calcs (shown now in blue) 14.36 8/4/15. MG

[Guest]

Here is almost half of the Picture. Buried deep in the CRA 2 Div diaries is a table showing ammunition supplied up to 19th Nov 1914 - essentially the report on the first 90 days.

It is an interesting read and further evidence that the claim quoted in the OP is extremely unlikely. To save you the calculation each 18-Pdr fired (on average) 1,779 rounds of ammunition. Note the '?' with regards to the 18-Pdr HE is in the original. Anecdotal evidence supports the fact that there was very little HE for the 18-Pdrs. The table below would indicate 0.8% of the 18-Pdr ammunition was HE in the first 3 months.

Source: WO 95/1313

Interestingly peak demand was on 24th Oct when 4,068 rounds were supplied - and presumably mostly used.. This only equates to just over 75 rounds per gun (54 guns). At four-rounds-per-minute, this equates to less than 20 minutes firing - perhaps a sharp indication of the shortages of ammunition.

Also it shows that at least 78% of the ammunition in the first 90 days was expended at Ypres.

Separately there is a table "Statement of Ammunition Expended" covering 7th-15th Nov 1914 for 18-Pdrs

7th Nov 922

8th Nov -

9th Nov 342

10th Nov 616

11th Nov 2,835

12th Nov 1,963

13th Nov 1,956

14th Nov 778

15th Nov 1,269

Total 10,681 or 198 rounds per gun or slightly less than 25 rounds per gun per day in action.

MG

[Guest]

An anchor point for cross-referencing; 6th Div Arty data for Oct-Nov 1914. Ypres is shaded blue. Staggering level of detail.

Of note - for 6th Div Artillery.

1. Heaviest day in terms of shells fired was the 20th Oct - technically spaeking the day before First Ypres started.

2. Heaviest day during First Ypres - 25th Oct 1915

3. 59% of all shells fired during First Ypres were fired in the first 6 days.

Which all raise more questions.....

MG

Note all headings are as per the original. Some inconsistencies across RFA Brigades.

[neverforget]

Well, I must say that there has been an incredible amount of work put into evaluating this "incredible statistic". It is all very interesting, and very much appreciated.

I did send the author an e-mail, as I said a couple of days ago, but as yet I have heard nothing back. It has only been a couple of days though, so hopefully I will hear something soon.

I will of course update you as soon as.