7 July, 1914

[BottsGreys]

"Sir R. Rodd to Sir Edward Grey

Private

Rome, July 7, 1914

It has been curious to study here the effect of that abominable assassination at Serajevo. While ostensibly the authorities and the press have been loud in their denounciations of the crime and full of sympathy with the Emperor, it is obvious that people generally have regarded the elimination of the late Archduke as almost providential. I heard from two bankers here that at Trieste when the news was received Hungarian stock rose from 72 to 80. He was almost as much disliked it seems in Hungary as in Italy."

Chris

[ianw]

I wonder if the stock market was simply reacting to the death of a man they disliked or anticipating the industrial gains to be made by war.

[duckman]

Austro-Hungarian Imperial Council of Ministers meets in Vienna to consider emergency measures in Bosnia. Berchtold opens the meeting saying the council should decide "Whether the moment had not come when a show of force might put an end to Serbia's intrigues once and for all." He the explained that they had German support, that he doubted whether Russia would intervene and argued that failure to act would be seen in AH's Slav areas as weakness that would only result in more separatist action.

Hungarian Prime Minister Istvan Tisza argues for some degree of moderation - a note before war, and that - however severe - would make demands that Serbia could accept.

Berchtold recalled AH's diplomatic triumph that lead to the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908, and subsequent coups, such as blocking the Serbs in Albania (read "hatchet jobs on Russia, Italy and Serbia"). For the first time, it seems, he was forcefully in favour of war, since in the past he had agreed with Tisza on limiting open conflict with Serbia. The other ministers agreed with Berchtold. The best Tisza could manage was to stall action until 9 July, to allow time for him to prepare a dissenting view for the Emperors consideration.