If the Gallipoli campaign had been a success...

[ericwebb]

History has proved the Easterners mistaken, but it's not hard to see the attractions of the Eastern strategy, both at the time and in retrospect, if it had worked.

Turkey out of the war =

No further worries eastwards;

Turkish food and raw material supplies to Germany & Austro-Hungary cut off;

Warm water communications with Russia;

Troops into Serbia, so Bulgaria stays out of the war, so no 'Gardeners of Salonica' [albeit troops holding Serbia count against that to a degree].

So the Russians have an easier time of it. No revolution, Lenin dies of old age still in Switzerland, Stalin is never heard of, the Kerensky governement succeeds and the Tsar becomes a constitutional monarch.

Austro-Hungary makes a separate peace, and survives as a geo-political entity in truncated form.

Germany collapses by 1917, but because there is not quite the pressing need for the Kaiser to bunk off to Holland he sticks around, and soon gets assassinated. Hurrah!!

America never enters the War.

Post-war:

The British Empire survives more or less, for the time being, winds down in an orderly fashion, [Possibly no partition of India]. With the post-Great-War pressure that much less, and with no need for that idiot Lloyd George to stir the pot in 1918 by trying to introduce conscription to Ireland, Eire gets a better deal. Although there is partition the IRA is nipped in the bud, there is no civil war, hence there are no later Ulster troubles. No WW2 [good news!] no League of Nations/United Nations [even better news!!] no Cold War/imperial USA [superb!!!] No Korea! No Vietnam! No George Bush! [i'm now weeping with delight!!!!] No 'Common Market'/EU [utter ecstasy!!!!!] Middle Europe is 'held' as a federation by Austria + a chastened Germany, and after a generation or two's stand-off, eventually France becomes friendlier towards her old enemies. The Balkans continue to Balk! But what the heck! Because the world hasn't been so badly smashed up it avoids the 1930's crash. Because so many bright young Englishmen survive WW2 [because it doesn't happen!] Britain is a happier and more civilised place. Because the developed world doesn't lose its morale, hence maintains colonialism for as long as it's needed, rather than cutting and running too early, no Ghana/Kenya/Rwanda/Zimbabwe/Somalia etc., and because with no Cold War there are no proxy wars either, everything stays a lot more peaceful through the 20th century and beyond.

Oh! If only we'd succeeded at Gallipoli!

[And Oh! Ain't counterfactual history futile!!]

Eric

[AlanCurragh]

Just wanted to thank everyone for their contributions - it's been fascinating following them.

Agreeing with Eric though, counter-factual hisory is a little futile, but can lead to some interesting conclusions!

Alan

[Peter Doyle]

The military landing was not meant as a 'march to Constantinople.' It was intended to knock out the forts that were barring the Navy's passage through the Dardanelles, then occupy the peninsula to ensure that passage remained safe at least on the European side.

Absolutely! It was a gamble, fair and square. If it had paid off, who knows what might have happened; at very least the costly expeditions against the Ottomans in other parts of the Middle East would have been saved, and we can extrapolate from there.

[per ardua per mare per terram]

It is rarely acknowledged that the fall of Constantinople could have had a detrimental effect on the allied war effort. It might have resulted in a jihad, which would have made previous massacres of the minorities, such as those in Armenia; Bulgaria etc look mild in comparison. It would also have implications for the European powers: both France & Britain had empires with large Moslem populations that could have been susceptible to internal division and a Moslem backlash. Additionally a jihad could have resulted in a greater threat from the Suez Canal, not only from Ottoman forces, but also those of the other Islamic groups in the area. It is probable that Arabian support would have been withheld; why would they have supported the allies against a regime that had so stirred up Islamic furore and why fight the Ottomans when they could seize gains when they were distracted? No Palestinian campaign or Lawrence of Arabia and no Allied division of the Ottoman Empire.

[per ardua per mare per terram]

And, if I am not mistaken, did not the RN threaten Constantionople with their guns (HMS Benbow if I recall) after the war - 1919/1920 or thereabouts?

Ankara became the capital because it wasn’t so vulnerable, especially to naval bombardment. Even though the plan for a naval bombardment of Constantinople fell through, it was later bombed by the RNAS. I doubt if many in the West would have even heard of Haiga Sophia, let alone be bothered if this mosque were shelled.

Capturing or threatening a capital was an archaic way of removing a nation from combat and is still perpetuated in games such as Risk! Instead of thinking of the planners as racist or as belittling the opposition; I’d remind pals that this was how the Germans expected to remove France from the war both in 1914 & 1918 and achieved in WW2, as well as the Franco-Prussian War.

If the Eastern strategy had been successful, there would not have been the Palestine campaign and so no British Mandate and possibly no creation of Israel. Another possible outcome could have been negotiated end to the “sick man of Europe” with the possibility of offering Germany a place in the sun with the spoils at a peace settlement.

It’s hard to calculate the effects of success in Gallipoli, followed by a successful outcome to the whole strategy, especially on the Russian Revolution. If a viable southern front was opened: Germany & Austro-Hungry would have faced war on another front streaching their resources; Russia would borne less of the fighting; their casualties may have been less; the Czar probably would not have gone to lead his forces and the impetus for the February Revolution would have been lessened and no treaty of Brest-Litovsk. I doubt the Czar & Czarina had it in them to adapt to being constitutional monarchs. It is unlikely that the West could have supplied Russia with sufficient war materials, even if a route had been opened; so that major cause of their troubles would remain. Whether this southern front was a credible threat to Germany & Austro-Hungry is an even remoter proposition. Advancing up the railways and/ or along the Danube would be a defenders paradise that would probably rival the Tigris campaign.